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 Post subject: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 4:01 am 

Joined: 2017-Oct-19 12:02 am
Age: Drake
Today I was thinking in my next EDH deck, probably would go esper, so I was searching for the cards I wanted to have extra copies and got to the awful surpreise that the prices has elevated a LOT

I bought my Rhystic study for 7 dollars, now it cost 13-15 , I bought my chromatic lantern at 9 dollars on May 17, 2017 (I am seeing the order at amazon) and now it costs 18.50, Vedalken orrery went from 5 bucks last year to 22!! came on!!!

And they are just a few I notice but there are a lot

I am happy that EDH is having more love and more players, I just wish WoTc starts reprinting all those staplets we need to build our decks.

At least I learned something, I remember a chapter in the CommandZone podcast where JOsh said that wen he buy cards for a commander deck, he usually buys 4 or more, because he knows if he thought it is a worthy card then he would be wanting more copies. I should have bought 4 orrerys, now I know, and I will be purchasing all my cards 4+

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 7:14 am 
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Joined: 2011-Jan-02 5:25 am
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Or you build your deck with something else than staples.

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 7:31 am 

Joined: 2017-Oct-19 12:02 am
Age: Drake
Shabbaman wrote:
Or you build your deck with something else than staples.


Part of the fun (for me) of EDH is being able to play the cards I like, cards that are not legal in other formats, or are just bad in other formats but sweet in EDH.

I love Rhystic study, I love Land tax , Sensei's divining top is my pet card of all times and I am fortunate enough to have all of them.

I bought Bribery when it cost pennies, now because of the EDH expansion it costs 22+ and it is a card that is unplayable outside EDH.

Reprints are good for new players

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 8:21 am 

Joined: 2008-Jan-25 8:26 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Calgary
Sensei's Divining Top might not be the best example.

But your point stands, overall. I personally wonder how much of it is true demand versus speculation.

After all, the price growth on MTGO doesn't track in the same direction or to the same extent as in paper Magic. And there are plenty of examples to make that have fewer printings on MTGO.

Casual cards that blow up in price have been around forever. Doubling Season was expensive long before Commander was called Commander. Coat of Arms maintained it's high casual-driven price in the face of many reprintings, until it didn't anymore.

I think the difference now is that "staples" are being speculated on. But I don't really have any data to put behind that. I just find it hard to believe that there is so much more Commander-driven demand today than a couple of years ago for cards like Rhystic Study or Phyrexian Altar.

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 8:59 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon
tarnar wrote:
Sensei's Divining Top might not be the best example.

But it's unplayable in other formats...

Overall i think there is a significant difference in player pop today than 3 years ago though. Maybe there are more people who were playing a few years ago and had one deck, but now have accumulated funds for multiple decks.


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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 9:12 am 

Joined: 2017-Oct-19 12:02 am
Age: Drake
tarnar wrote:
Sensei's Divining Top might not be the best example.

.


The top is banned even in legacy, it can only be played in vintage (yes those 3 people playing vintage can play the top) and In EDH

I bought my tops at 2 bucks each (Kamigawa times), now it costs 17-19 bucks, imagine if the top were unbanned in modern, what would be the price tag then? 100 bucks? (I am not saying that the unban is possible)

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-12 9:20 am 

Joined: 2011-Feb-15 7:09 am
Age: Drake
I think 'speculation' does not accurately describe the price manipulation that goes on. I look at hype around brawl and pauper pauper formats and I see that big profits are there for actors able to control supply in this age of internet connected consumers.
But it's just one more reality you have to live with; the age when you could luck into some power in the bulk boxes won't return.

I happen to have traded for a $15 rhystic study recently: am I unhappy? No, I have a bunch of other cardboards I can trade to get those $$$ back, and I get to enjoy the rhystic study in my edh deck.


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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-13 3:37 am 

Joined: 2008-Jan-25 8:26 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Calgary
alexev wrote:
The top is banned even in legacy, it can only be played in vintage (yes those 3 people playing vintage can play the top) and In EDH
Sovarius wrote:
But it's unplayable in other formats...

The price of it went down by nearly half in the year before it was banned in Legacy, and then lost another third before starting to climb back up again more recently. It's had so few printings and is still very playable in non-Commander casual formats (they do exist) such that it wouldn't make sense for its value to completely crash after the Legacy ban.

Compare that to Land Tax, with a slow, steady increase that's very recently curved up.

Commander has been very popular for a while now, not just the past couple of months. The recent curve-up doesn't feel like it's tracking with the growth of the format.

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-13 11:54 am 
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Joined: 2012-Sep-19 1:30 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
tarnar wrote:
Compare that to Land Tax, with a slow, steady increase that's very recently curved up.

Commander has been very popular for a while now, not just the past couple of months. The recent curve-up doesn't feel like it's tracking with the growth of the format.

The problem is that price increases in a collectible market don't go up linearly with demand, but rather exponentially. If the available pool has been slowly shrinking, there will come a point where the scarcity experiences a sudden spike due to cumulative effects.

Here's an example with made-up numbers, and sped-up timetable, and very simplistic math:
Let's assume that there's a current pool of a card of 100 copies. Each month another 10 copies of that card sell, as new players enter the format, and existing players get copies of the card for new decks. The card starts at $10, and increases in price by the increase in scarcity.

Month X: Available Cards (increase in scarcity over previous month) $current price
Month 0: 100 cards. (Starting scarcity) $10.00
Month 1: 90 cards (11% increase in scarcity) $11.11
Month 2: 80 cards (12% increase in scarcity) $12.50
Month 3: 70 cards (14% increase in scarcity) $14.28
Month 4: 60 cards (16% increase in scarcity) $16.67
Month 5: 50 cards (20% increase in scarcity) $20.00
Month 6: 40 cards (25% increase in scarcity) $25.00
Month 7: 30 cards (33% increase in scarcity) $33.33
Month 8: 20 cards (50% increase in scarcity) $50.00
Month 9: 10 cards (100% increase in scarcity) $100.00

As I stated, this is a very simplified model, but it shows how at the beginning it increased at a relatively modest pace, but near the end you saw the price spike caused by the upward exponential growth.

Due to this, the price increases, even the sudden spikes, are able to be explained by Commander's popularity. Price growth does not have to track format growth, but can easily be caused by a steady rate of purchase if the item in question has a fixed number of copies (i.e. no reprints).

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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-13 1:46 pm 

Joined: 2010-Mar-10 1:31 pm
Age: Dragon
Shabbaman wrote:
Or you build your deck with something else than staples.


That's just crazy talk

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trappedslider wrote:
EDIT: so if i somehow manged to get down to 1 life,played Repay in Kind followed by Decree of Annihilation then it owuld be bad evil juju?

That's not how magic works. You can't equate cards and situations linearly like that!


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 Post subject: Re: How EDH expansion has impacted the price of cards
AgePosted: 2018-Apr-14 2:46 am 

Joined: 2011-Mar-08 7:15 am
Age: Wyvern
Willbender wrote:
Here's an example with made-up numbers, and sped-up timetable, and very simplistic math:
Let's assume that there's a current pool of a card of 100 copies. Each month another 10 copies of that card sell, as new players enter the format, and existing players get copies of the card for new decks. The card starts at $10, and increases in price by the increase in scarcity.

Month X: Available Cards (increase in scarcity over previous month) $current price
Month 0: 100 cards. (Starting scarcity) $10.00
Month 1: 90 cards (11% increase in scarcity) $11.11
Month 2: 80 cards (12% increase in scarcity) $12.50
Month 3: 70 cards (14% increase in scarcity) $14.28
Month 4: 60 cards (16% increase in scarcity) $16.67
Month 5: 50 cards (20% increase in scarcity) $20.00
Month 6: 40 cards (25% increase in scarcity) $25.00
Month 7: 30 cards (33% increase in scarcity) $33.33
Month 8: 20 cards (50% increase in scarcity) $50.00
Month 9: 10 cards (100% increase in scarcity) $100.00

As I stated, this is a very simplified model, but it shows how at the beginning it increased at a relatively modest pace, but near the end you saw the price spike caused by the upward exponential growth.

Due to this, the price increases, even the sudden spikes, are able to be explained by Commander's popularity. Price growth does not have to track format growth, but can easily be caused by a steady rate of purchase if the item in question has a fixed number of copies (i.e. no reprints).


Wow... I really like this. Sometimes people like to buy into the whole "conspiracy/buyout" mode of thinking, when it's really just basic economics. Thanks!! 8)

Jared


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