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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-18 1:24 pm 
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Joined: 2006-Dec-31 12:26 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
cryogen wrote:
If the makers of that saw were gathering feedback and saw that a large portion of people who purchased their saw were in fact using it to hammer a nail, I think they would be reevaluating their saw, if only to see how they could market it better.

To me, that shows people want some hammers, and will use anything as a hammer. But if you're not in the market to make hammers, you shouldn't rework your saw to look more like a hammer.

cryogen wrote:
But I think a card like Iona, which has only negative uses and a large number of people across various forums have complained about for years is something which should have actual consideration.

Then make a post to talk about Iona. I feel this survey to see what people would want to have on/off the ban list just muddies that kind of message. I certainly wasn't seeing anything about Iona from your survey.


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-18 3:09 pm 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon
There's some very poor science in that video. Like, a good amount. Numbers are even extrapolated. When you play one turn 1 they claim you have a 30% chance to win and everyone else a 23%. Out of 300 games, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th person all won an equal number of times? Over enough games, maybe, but you can tell the numbers were just filled in "if player 1 wins 30% of the time, that leaves ~23% for the rest each". I wouldn't believe for one second that out of such a small sample the numbers happened to equal exactly 23%.
Everyone has a 25% rate of winning, except if you start with Sol Ring it's 21.6? Whence comes the idea that player 1 wins 30% of the time then? Or vice versa, if player 1 wins 30% of the time then how did they get the statistic that early sol ring = 21.6% to win and without early sol ring = 25%?
And i'm not sure if they covered this (i can't watch all 90 minutes), but if you have 21.6% chance at winning with early Sol Ring, and 30% chance to win if playing first... What's your rate of winning if you are player 1 with early Sol Ring? Does it go back to 25%??

Besides that though, i think people should ask themselves if they are okay with a card that makes you such a big target on turn 1 that you actually lose more often. I'm not, personally. I think if Sol Ring is an acceptable card there is other stuff that could come off the ban list.

Quote:
Turns out, Sol Ring is not this amazingly great card.

This has to be blatantly false right? If it wasn't an amazingly great card, why would you have to target someone who plays it on turn one? I understand you could evaluate flying under the radar as beneficial in politics but as far as card power goes...


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-18 9:09 pm 
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Joined: 2016-Nov-27 2:39 pm
Age: Dragon
Carthain wrote:
cryogen wrote:
If the makers of that saw were gathering feedback and saw that a large portion of people who purchased their saw were in fact using it to hammer a nail, I think they would be reevaluating their saw, if only to see how they could market it better.

To me, that shows people want some hammers, and will use anything as a hammer. But if you're not in the market to make hammers, you shouldn't rework your saw to look more like a hammer.


Getting away from the analogies, EDH has changed in nature. It was a thing people did in steady close groups originally. Since at least 2011 it's become phenomenally popular and a mainstream format: random people play it at conventions and game stores with other random people.

I don't know whether the RC is trying to rule it just on the basis of being a kitchen table format (which some of this discussion seems to be implying could be the case?), or whether they're also owning and taking responsibility for the enormous, mainstream, random-players format it's also become. I think it's the second and they seem to be the kinds of people who would do the second.

I do feel like there is more they could do for those environments though, like update social guidance, ban some bogeymen, etc.

Carthain wrote:
cryogen wrote:
But I think a card like Iona, which has only negative uses and a large number of people across various forums have complained about for years is something which should have actual consideration.

Then make a post to talk about Iona. I feel this survey to see what people would want to have on/off the ban list just muddies that kind of message. I certainly wasn't seeing anything about Iona from your survey.

That's fair, I saw this as just being a poll and nothing else. My thoughts on Iona though are if it's so bad for fun, but it's allowed because people will be aware of how bad for fun it is, just remove it.

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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-18 9:31 pm 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Carthain wrote:
cryogen wrote:
If the makers of that saw were gathering feedback and saw that a large portion of people who purchased their saw were in fact using it to hammer a nail, I think they would be reevaluating their saw, if only to see how they could market it better.

To me, that shows people want some hammers, and will use anything as a hammer. But if you're not in the market to make hammers, you shouldn't rework your saw to look more like a hammer.

cryogen wrote:
But I think a card like Iona, which has only negative uses and a large number of people across various forums have complained about for years is something which should have actual consideration.

Then make a post to talk about Iona. I feel this survey to see what people would want to have on/off the ban list just muddies that kind of message. I certainly wasn't seeing anything about Iona from your survey.

For full disclosure, I don't care about Iona, nor did I vote to ban her because I personally don't see her that often in my playing. But that doesn't change the amount of discussion she gets. I also don't do these polls with any sort of agenda or conscious bias (beyond not including cards on the polls that I think are grossly stupid to suggest banning). Off the top of my head, this year as in years past she gets 30-40% of votes to ban her, perhaps more. To me that is a significant number when you consider that cards like Demonic Tutor get a lot of chatter but not actual votes to back it up.


========

Regarding the podcast, I got to listen to it and while it was interesting I feel it was incomplete. I'm not going to try and nitpick it or counter argue in order to discredit because I'm honestly on the fence about Sol Ring. But what I will say is that it overlooks the ubiquitous nature of the card and impact in favor of the more black and white "do you win the game?" Look at a card like Primeval Titan, which for years people didn't think it was a problem because they were too focused on the things that ended games and not the more subtle things that affected games (like deck building choices due to Titan, or just how people got all that game winning mana). I think this podcast doesn't take into account how the game is affected by that early Sol Ring. Even if it doesn't slam dunk you a win, are the games better because of the early head start or the shift of focus to deal with it and what follows? Does my having to expend early resources to deal with Sol Ring leave me woefully unprepared for something another player brings out? Are the games as enjoyable?


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-18 11:46 pm 
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Joined: 2012-Feb-07 4:15 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Personally I’m not sure that the numbers on Iona are even reliable in the first place. Painter’s Servant has consistently been one of if not the most popular cards to unban, and a lot of people seem to be of the (IMO incorrect) mindset that the only way to get it off is to swap places with Iona. A not conclusive but suggestive piece of evidence is that, assuming everyone who voted voted for Black Lotus, the numbers of PS + Iona equal the number of people who voted plus one.

I am about 95% sure that if Servant were unbanned tomorrow, Iona would fall into the category of the Praetors or the original Eldrazi: constant complained about but very few people seriously advocating a ban

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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 1:41 am 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
I think someone on the RC said at one point that the two couldn't coexist in the format. Regardless of Painter, she isn't a card that does anything but grief. Removing her would help to send the message that griefers cards and strategies should be discouraged. Pretty sure that Papa said Ugin was a bigger concern for Painter than Iona.

Going over the polls FWIW:

First time:
Sample size minimum (based off Black Lotus): 567
Sol Ring: 23.6% support to ban
Gifts: 27.2% support to unban
Painter's: 27% support to unban
Iona: 32.7% support to ban

Second time:
Sample size minimum (based off Black Lotus): 245
Sol Ring: 28.2% support to ban
Gifts: 41.9% support to unban
Painter's: 32.9% support to unban
Iona: 38.2% support to ban

Third time:
Sample size minimum (based off Black Lotus): 127
Sol Ring: 29.3% support to ban
Gifts: 36.8% support to unban
Painter's: 36.2% support to unban
Iona: 41.4% support to ban

Current poll:
Sample size minimum (based off Black Lotus): 39
Sol Ring: 31.9% support to ban
Gifts: 31.9% support to unban
Painter's: 34% support to unban
Iona: 46.8% support to ban


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 1:59 am 
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Joined: 2006-Dec-31 12:26 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
spacemonaut wrote:
I do feel like there is more they could do for those environments though, like update social guidance, ban some bogeymen, etc.

The idea of updating the social guidance, that might be something worth delving into more of (perhaps in a different threat though). You've certainly piqued my interest that making some changes to that could lead to better experiences.

cryogen wrote:
Off the top of my head, this year as in years past she gets 30-40% of votes to ban her, perhaps more.
Interestingly -- I recall MaRo saying that the "kitchen table players" vastly outnumber those who regularly go to events, let alone those invested enough in the game to come talk about it online (that was a few years ago, it's possible it's changed as time has progressed.)

I *think* I recall someone from the RC saying something similar? I could be just imagining that though.

Regardless - do you think that the people who come to places such as her, mtgsalvation or reddit are the majority of players for Commander/EDH? Even if they aren't, do you think they're a good representation of players? I don't think they are a good representation. I do think that there is a "next level" aspect about people who are going online and will post about such things, vs those who just play it casually and mostly just use the internet to look up rulings or card interactions. Because of that, I don't think that we really represent the whole of Commander/EDH players very well.

As such, I feel any results we can get by polling people online are likely skewed in some way (not sure how, but I suspect likely higher on the lines of how to abuse cards/synergy.) So I'm just not sure how I can put much faith in any sort of data you get out of such polls.


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 2:29 am 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Pretty sure the RC has said similar as well, and I agree that the results are likely skewed. However, I don't know of any way to collect kitchen player data. After all, if they are inactive or at best forum lurkers, it's hard to imagine they go to large events for the side games and would interact with the RC. And since the RC has no data collecting method that I'm aware of (beyond the aforementioned forum reading), I can only assume that they get their input mostly from the more enfranchised players, while making their decisions based on their own opinions. Which again, I must stress, I'm not knocking them or mean any disrespect towards them.


Edit: well if you want to know why the RC keeps their thoughts internal, check out the comment section of this week's SCG article. Such rude people. I feel bad for Sheldon because he doesn't need that crap.


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 7:31 am 

Joined: 2010-Mar-10 1:31 pm
Age: Dragon
cryogen wrote:
Pretty sure that Papa said Ugin was a bigger concern for Painter than Iona.

I think it might have been Sheldon who said it over at Sally in response to a question I asked.


cryogen wrote:

Edit: well if you want to know why the RC keeps their thoughts internal, check out the comment section of this week's SCG article. Such rude people. I feel bad for Sheldon because he doesn't need that crap.


Wow..after I got past the recent comments which were mainly about his health and wishing him the best...but for the article itself my favorite is "The most hideous art in the history of Magic"

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trappedslider wrote:
EDIT: so if i somehow manged to get down to 1 life,played Repay in Kind followed by Decree of Annihilation then it owuld be bad evil juju?

That's not how magic works. You can't equate cards and situations linearly like that!


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 8:32 am 
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Joined: 2010-Jul-18 9:59 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Sovarius wrote:
There's some very poor science in that video.

I've snipped the rest of your reply because you're making assumptions about how the data was collected and analysed despite the fact that they actually tell you how they did it at the start of the video. You're letting your preconceptions cloud the analysis of the data because it doesn't line up with your world view - something else they talk about in the introduction to the video.

Basically your statement that the analysis of the data is flawed, is flawed.

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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-19 4:58 pm 
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Joined: 2011-Feb-07 3:37 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Danbury, CT
Carthain wrote:
Interestingly -- I recall MaRo saying that the "kitchen table players" vastly outnumber those who regularly go to events, let alone those invested enough in the game to come talk about it online (that was a few years ago, it's possible it's changed as time has progressed.)


Have managed both LGS and corporate retailer. Sales numbers suggest this is still true, by an overwhelming margin.

...

I feel like trying to get info out of this banned list poll is a bit like trying to mine customer satisfaction data for useful feedback. There's probably something to learn there, but there's so much noise it's nearly impossible to dig out. I'm imagining EDH Precision Cutting Tools, LTD...

"Very poor hammer, do not recommend. 0 of 5 stars"
"Excellent UPS shipping, arrived on time. 5 of 5 stars"
"UPS doesn't deliver to Mount Crumpit, will never order from EDH again. 0 of 5 stars"
"My Comcast wireless router is broken, so my wireless guided saw doesn't work. 0 of 5 stars"
"You have excellent thought on precision cutting, I hope you to join me for further legitimate discussion..."
"I came, I sawed, I conquered LOL. 3 of 5 stars"
(insert N more saw-pun results)
"USPS doesn't deliver to Mount Crumpit either. I hate you and am ordering more saws. 0 of 5 stars"
"Theere saws are great, but I wish they made hamer to. 3 of 5 stars"
"X of 5 stars (no further comment)"
(using random number generator, create N of above comment. also use rando for value of X)
"Lucy at EDH customer service is the best. 5 of 5 stars" (note: noone named Lucy works for EDH)
"Lucy at EDH customer service is the worst. 0 of 5 stars" (note: still noone named Lucy at EDH)
(there are more saw puns. not new or creative puns, just more of the same)
"...they have drone delivery nowadays. How come a drone can't fly up a mountain with my crate of saws? You got them fancy drones in New York City, but not out here in the flyover states, huh? Typical east coast liberals..."
"Hey, this saw works pretty well, but after a while my thumb got a blister. Maybe put a thumb pad on the grip for future models? Thanks for your time. 4 of 5 stars"
(how are there so few saw puns, yet so many people who thought the same puns would be funny!?)
"Comcast fixed my wifi, but I'm returning the saw anyway. 2 of 5 stars"
"...The EDH customer service team has stopped returning my calls. It is very cold and lonely on Mount Crumpit. 0 of 5 stars"

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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-20 9:49 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon
cryogen wrote:
Does my having to expend early resources to deal with Sol Ring leave me woefully unprepared for something another player brings out?

I dislike the 'remove their Sol Ring' argument/comments because unlike in 1v1, spending removal on mana doesn't put you ahead. It's a whole other thing to Strip Mine their land and Abrade their rock in 1v1. But it's not that great when your 2 other opponents are still developing and your Abrade or Disenchant could have stopped a combo or threat later. I'm not saying shattering a Sol Ring isn't powerful or never valuable but it's also a tempo play and comes with risks itself.

Viperion wrote:
Sovarius wrote:
There's some very poor science in that video.

I've snipped the rest of your reply because you're making assumptions about how the data was collected and analysed despite the fact that they actually tell you how they did it at the start of the video. You're letting your preconceptions cloud the analysis of the data because it doesn't line up with your world view - something else they talk about in the introduction to the video.

Basically your statement that the analysis of the data is flawed, is flawed.

I can believe that's possible, but do you think only 313 games from a small number of streamers is actually data? As it turns out, some of them play with themes, points systems, budgets, and house rules. These are not representative, average, diverse games, they are poop for data collection. Having given the video a much much longer go with more time on my hands today, i can say it's a lot more interesting than i originally thought, but it definitely isn't helpful for the real world and doesn't change other problems with sol ring (like the fact it's a turn 1 play that makes you such a large target according to CZ (and people in general) or arguably too much mana or uninteresting and too swingy for enjoyable games).

I was incorrect about how they arrived to %'s on win rate for p2-4. Which, they rounded, so it didn't *look* like data at first. (not that rounding is especially scientific but it is acceptable). I thought they counted 30% win rate on player one and divvied up the rest of the possible win % between the 3. Which was wrong of me, but it wouldn't actually be surprising given other data. What is surprising is that p4 wins as often as p2, considering the advantage that p1 seems to enjoy.
They still compared "start with sol ring = 21.6" with "not with sol ring = 25" and that's not correct if player 1 has a 30% chance to win. I understand they didn't also check "but what is the % win rate of p1 with early Sol Ring, and % win rate of p2 with early Sol Ring etc" but that means they filled in that number. If win rates are typically 30/23/23/23 and you start with sol ring, it means your chances didn't drop from 25 to 21.6, your chances dropped from usually being 30 or 23.


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 Post subject: Re: Ban List Poll
AgePosted: 2018-Oct-20 8:50 pm 
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Woah, woah, woah- Guys, it's statistical analysis. The first thing you learn about statistical analysis is that it's based on sampling- and is NOT to be used as a determinant- and the CZ guys DID cover their bases there. Outside of raw math, and card counting- there really isn't much hard science that can be performed in regards to MtG. There was never any pretense of this information having any determinant value. The conclusions drawn from these data sets were reasonable, even though I don't necessarily agree with them based on what the actual levels of variance were, or for the reasons suggested.

Let's not talk passed one another over sources and citations. We shouldn't be looking to settle for proving how correct that we feel that we are; but instead look for the value in the the disagreements that we're having. These sort of discussions are only enriching- if they serve to give us more perspective than we would obtain on our own.

Say for example- my suggestion that Intuition should get the axe above the rest of the cardpool (with only maybe Mana Crypt, Expropriate, or Demonic Tutor as viable competitors for thar slot;) runs wholly contrary to the folks who adamantly believe that Gifts Ungiven should be unbanned. Though we may not agree about the effect that cheap multitutors have on the format (and I think my own case is supported by raw math given our format's extra deckbuilding restrictions- and years of experience with those sorts of cards-) it would be unfair to draw conclusions about their opinions coming from a place of ignorance, or a desire to bust their local metas with no regard for their playmates. In that discussion, most of my reasonable opposition feels that the uses for the cards is only degenerate in extreme meta where banning them has the least effect. However, my experience leads me to believe that tools like Dig Through Time and Mystical Teachings perform even better than them in fair decks, but underperform in the sort of combo decks which Gifts and Intution over perform in excess for- thus the cards are subpar for answer-seeking, or engine building; but excel at game ruination. These differences in opinions, backed up by sound logic as they may be, are fascinating discussion; but are not worth drawing arbitrary lines over, or drawing unnecessary conclusions about fellow posters over.

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