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MTG Commander/Elder Dragon Highlander • View topic - Theoretical Probability as Win Condition

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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 10:13 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 10:28 am 
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Joined: 2016-Nov-27 2:39 pm
Age: Elder Dragon

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Decks: Chaos colored dragons, Mathas, the Instigator (politics and mayhem).
Beloved precons: ; ; .


Last edited by spacemonaut on 2019-Jan-20 9:30 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 1:17 pm 

Joined: 2009-Jul-02 4:25 pm
Age: Drake
Into The North podcast has just uploaded an episode about this very thing, encouraging people to play Gitrog Monster. I expect to see a ton of these decks randomly popping up now, because podcasts, YouTube, and Reddit seem to be where most people get their info on this format now.

https://intothenorth.podbean.com/e/into ... g-monster/


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 1:48 pm 
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Joined: 2010-Jan-25 4:50 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
The whole point of doing something a bazillion insane number of times is irrelevant when the official rules state that after each and every shuffle the deck is in a completely unknown state. If you flip a coin that same number of times, what’s the likelihood that your next flip is heads?... it’s still 50/50 it’s an example of independent probability.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 2:29 pm 

Joined: 2009-Jul-02 4:25 pm
Age: Drake
You're preaching to the choir. We're at a point where the rules say one thing, but the internet brain trust has waved their hand and pulled out some justification for trying it anyway because it's a casual format and there is no way to enforce the rules. They think they get to do their thing until their combo happens naturally or everyone scoops out of boredom, whichever comes first, because there is nothing outside of the MTR that says they can't.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 1:37 am 
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Joined: 2009-Aug-20 7:49 pm
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: New Hampshire

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"The President's job - and if someone sufficiently vain and stupid is picked he won't realize this - is not to wield power, but to draw attention away from it." -- Douglas Adams, predicting the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 2:13 am 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
I would be upset if a judge ruled that an arbitrary large number of coin flips had the desired result, whether it was one heads or one million. Because the probability of each coin flip is 50/50, every additional coin flip to achieve a singular "heads" result will get you closer to a 100% success rate, but it will NEVER actually become 100%.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 6:25 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 6:39 am 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
If we were playing casual EDH (or heck, even a league game) and you did the Efreet/Chance Encounter combo I'd let you have it, because I'm not going to nitpick like that. But if we were playing in a sanctioned Legacy tournament and you did that, I would expect that a.judge would not rule in your favor, simply because mathematically speaking, it is NOT a 100% chance that you hit 10 heads. Am I being petty at that point? Possibly, but the rules are black and white and unless I'm mistaken, that interaction isn't one which you can shortcut. But then again, I guess the judge could rule that you have to play it.out until you hit 10 successful coin flips.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 11:40 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 12:09 pm 

Joined: 2012-Mar-31 11:52 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Is that something a TO would allow?

Again, personally speaking I would be fine with this because I get how statistics work and yeah sure you got your 10 coin flips. I'm simply saying that when you have to be a rules stickler then this isn't an acceptable shortcut (unless of course you flip pins until you get your 10 and then just ignore the rest of them).


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-03 2:10 pm 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-04 3:26 am 
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Joined: 2016-Nov-27 2:39 pm
Age: Elder Dragon

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Decks: Chaos colored dragons, Mathas, the Instigator (politics and mayhem).
Beloved precons: ; ; .


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-06 11:58 pm 

Joined: 2009-Jul-02 4:25 pm
Age: Drake
So I've been thinking about it, and really these non-deterministic loops almost always come about from being able to shuffle your library for free when certain cards go to your graveyard. Even the MTR acknowledges this. So what do Kozilek, Ulamog, and Gaea's Blessing actually contribute to the format outside of these problematic loops? Mill protection? Is that even a net positive? Mill is terrible anyway, so giving it a boost might be interesting.

What would the format look like without them? Most people don't like Annihilator anyway, so only the people running them would miss the Eldrazi titans, and I've never actually seen Gaea's Blessing outside one of these combos.

I think I could get on board with just banning the three shuffle cards, tbh. In my opinion we have reached a point where disinformation on the internet (Reddit, youtube, podcasts) telling people this kind of thing is legal has created a problem that can't simply be solved by talking. Not even a quick Google search can resolve this issue, because there are so many conflicting answers. Basically someone in the playgroup will have to have a copy of the CR handy in order to deal with this, and even then some of these internet sources have fabricated a grifty answer to that.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Feb-07 1:52 am 
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Joined: 2014-Jul-28 8:30 am
Age: Dragon
Do these combos get played outside of hyper competitive decks? I play Gitrog combo, but only against my friend who also plays hyper-competitive builds. If the majority of EDH players don't build or play with that mentality, why should a small subset of decks/players/interactions result in the banning of cards?

Also, everyone should be packing at least one piece of graveyard hate, no matter what. So many decks in the format abuse or use their graveyards, there is no excuse not to have at least one answer in your 99. I know you won't always draw it, but those times that you do it makes a difference. Take proactive, strategic deckbuilding steps. I feel like this is more for the community at large as opposed to this specific topic.


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